Iranian Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance

Iranian Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance

Sectoral Herding and Volatility in the Chinese Stock Market: Lessons from COVID-19

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
School of Business and Economics and CEEAplA, University of Azores, Ponta Delgada, Portugal
10.22067/ijaaf.2026.48161.1632
Abstract
This study investigates the Chinese stock market's herd mentality and volatility both before and after the COVID-19 outbreak. Using the GARCH (1,1) and return dispersion (CSAD) models, the study examined how market volatility and investor behavior differ across economic sectors. Due to the market meltdown and instability caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the results showed a significant rise in herd behavior and volatility following the outbreak. To control cross-sector herding and volatility in times of crisis, the research shows that sector-specific variations in these phenomena are necessary. The study highlights shortcomings, such as failing to consider more comprehensive factors like regional and global influences, and recommends that these areas be addressed in subsequent studies.
Keywords
Subjects

  1. Ampofo, R. T., Aidoo, E. N., Ntiamoah, B. O., Frimpong, O. and Sasu, D. (2023). An empirical investigation of COVID-19 effects on herding behaviour in USA and UK stock markets using a quantile regression approach. Journal of Economics and Finance, 47(2), pp. 517-540. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-022-09613-8
  2. Assaf, A., Mokni, K., Yousaf, I. and Bhandari, A. (2023). Long memory in the high frequency cryptocurrency markets using fractal connectivity analysis: The impact of COVID-19. Research in International Business and Finance, 64(1), A. 101821. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101821
  3. Blasco, N., Corredor, P. and Ferreruela, S. (2012). Does herding affect volatility? Implications for the Spanish stock market. Quantitative Finance, 12(2), pp. 311-327. https://doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2010.516766
  4. Bukhari, F. H., Ahmad, H. and Hanif, H. (2021). Sectoral herding and contagion effect: pre and during COVID-19 crisis. VFAST Transactions on Education and Social Sciences, 9(4), pp. 143-152. https://doi.org/10.21015/vtess.v9i4.792
  5. Bukhari, S. F. H., Ahmad, H., Hanif, H. and Shah, S. F. (2022). Volatility contagion (spillover) between Chinese and Pakistani stock markets during COVID-19: pre and post analysis of trade-level data. International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, 15(4), pp. 309-330. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJMEF.2022.127157
  6. Chang, C. L., McAleer, M. and Wang, Y. A. (2020). Herding behaviour in energy stock markets during the Global Financial Crisis, SARS, and ongoing COVID-19. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 134, A. 110349. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110349
  7. Chang, E. C., Cheng, J. W. and Khorana, A. (2000). An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective. Journal of Banking & Finance, 24(10), pp. 1651-1679. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(99)00096-5
  8. Chauhan, Y., Ahmad, N., Aggarwal, V. and Chandra, A. (2020). Herd behaviour and asset pricing in the Indian stock market. IIMB Management Review, 32(2), pp. 143-152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iimb.2019.10.008
  9. Chiang, T. C. and Zheng, D. (2010). An empirical analysis of herd behavior in global stock markets. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(8), pp. 1911-1921. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.12.014
  10. Choi, S. Y. (2021). Analysis of stock market efficiency during crisis periods in the US stock market: Differences between the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 574, A. 125988. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2021.125988
  11. Christie, W. G. and Huang, R. D. (1995). Following the pied piper: do individual returns herd around the market? Financial Analysts Journal, 51(4), pp. 31-37. https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v51.n4.1918
  12. Demirer, R. and Kutan, A. M. (2006). Does herding behavior exist in Chinese stock markets?. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 16(2), pp. 123-142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2005.01.002
  13. Demirer, R., Leggio, K.B. and Lien, D. (2019) ‘Herding and flash events: Evidence from the 2010 Flash Crash’, Finance Research Letters, 31(1), pp. 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2018.12.018
  14. Espinosa-Méndez, C. and Arias, J. (2021). COVID-19 effect on herding behaviour in European capital markets. Finance Research Letters, 38(1), A. 101787. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101787
  15. Espinosa-Méndez, C. and Maquieira, C. P. (2023). Herding behavior of business groups during COVID-19: Evidence in Chile. Investigación Económica, 82(324), pp. 98-125. https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2023.324.83713
  16. Ferreruela, S. and Mallor, T. (2021). Herding in the bad times: The 2008 and COVID-19 crises. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 58(1), A. 101531. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2021.101531
  17. Gao, X., Ren, Y. and Umar, M. (2022a). To what extent does COVID-19 drive stock market volatility? A comparison between the US and China. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 35(1), pp. 1686-1706. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1906730
  18. Gao, Y., Zhao, C., Sun, B. and Zhao, W. (2022b). Effects of investor sentiment on stock volatility: new evidence from multi-source data in China’s green stock markets. Financial Innovation, 8(1), p. 77. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-022-00381-2
  19. Ghorbel, A., Snene, Y. and Frikha, W. (2023). Does herding behavior explain the contagion of the COVID-19 crisis?. Review of Behavioral Finance, 15(6), pp. 889-915. https://doi.org/10.1108/RBF-12-2021-0263
  20. Hudson, Y., Yan, M. and Zhang, D. (2020). Herd behaviour & investor sentiment: Evidence from UK mutual funds. International Review of Financial Analysis, 71, A. 101494. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2020.101494
  21. International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2023). World economic outlook: navigating global divergences. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. Available at: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400243431.081
  22. Javaira, Z. and Hassan, A. (2015). An examination of herding behavior in Pakistani stock market. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 10(3), pp. 474-490. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJoEM-07-2011-0064
  23. Lee, Y. C., Wu, W. L. and Lee, C. K. (2021). How COVID-19 triggers our herding behavior? Risk perception, state anxiety, and trust. Frontiers in Public Health, 9, A. 587439. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.587439
  24. Li, W., Chien, F., Waqas Kamran, H., Aldeehani, T. M., Sadiq, M., Nguyen, V. C. and Taghizadeh-Hesary, F. (2022). The nexus between COVID-19 fear and stock market volatility. Economic research-Ekonomska istraživanja, 35(1), pp. 1765-1785. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1914125
  25. Litimi, H., BenSaïda, A. and Bouraoui, O. (2016). Herding and excessive risk in the American stock market: A sectoral analysis. Research in International Business and Finance, 38, pp. 6-21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2016.03.008
  26. Mensi, W., Hammoudeh, S., Al-Jarrah, I. M. W., Sensoy, A. and Kang, S. H. (2017). Dynamic risk spillovers between stock markets. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 41, pp. 133–155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2017.03.003
  27. Mishra, P. K. and Mishra, S. K. (2021). COVID-19 pandemic and stock market reaction: empirical insights from 15 Asian countries. Transnational Corporations Review, 13(2), pp. 139-155. https://doi.org/10.1080/19186444.2021.1924536
  28. Mishra, P. K. and Mishra, S. K. (2023). Do banking and financial services sectors show herding behaviour in Indian stock market amid COVID-19 pandemic? Insights from quantile regression approach. Millennial Asia, 14(1), pp. 54-84. https://doi.org/10.1177/09763996211032356
  29. Ramelli, S. and Wagner, A. F. (2020). Feverish stock price reactions to COVID-19. The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, 9(3), pp. 622-655. https://doi.org/10.1093/rcfs/cfaa012
  30. Sheikh, M. F., Bhutta, A. I. and Parveen, T. (2025). Herding or reverse herding: the reaction to change in investor sentiment in the Chinese and Pakistani markets. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 20(1), pp. 74-91. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOEM-02-2022-0270
  31. Sihombing, N., Sadalia, I. and Wibowo, R. P. (2021). Analysis of herding behavior of investors in the banking industry in Indonesian stock market for February–June 2020 period. International Journal of Research and Review, 8(3), pp. 593–600.
  32. Tan, L., Chiang, T. C., Mason, J. R. and Nelling, E. (2008). Herding behavior in Chinese stock markets: An examination of A and B shares. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 16(1–2), pp. 61–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2007.04.004
  33. Vuong, G. T. H., Nguyen, M. H. and Keung Wong, W. (2022). CBOE volatility index (VIX) and corporate market leverage. Cogent Economics & Finance, 10(1), A. 2111798. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2022.2111798
  34. Wang, Y., Xiang, Y., Lei, X. and Zhou, Y. (2022). Volatility analysis based on GARCH-type models: Evidence from the Chinese stock market. Economic research-Ekonomska istraživanja, 35(1), pp. 2530-2554. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1967771
  35. Wang, Y., Yu, C. and Zhao, X. (2023). Does herding effect help forecast market volatility? Evidence from the Chinese stock market. Journal of Forecasting, 42(5), pp. 1275-1290. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2968
  36. Welch, I. (1992). Sequential sales, learning, and cascades. Journal of Finance, 47(2), pp. 695–732. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04406.x
  37. Wu, G., Yang, B. and Zhao, N. (2020). Herding behavior in Chinese stock markets during COVID-19. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56(15), pp. 3578-3587. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2020.1855138
  38. Yuan, H. (2021). Herding effect in China's A-share stock market under COVID-19 pandemic. In Proceedings of the 2021 7th International Conference on E-Business and Applications (ICEBA 2021) (pp. 70–76). Association for Computing Machinery (ACM), New York. https://doi.org/10.1145/3457640.3457662
  39. Zaremba, A., Kizys, R., Aharon, D. Y. and Demir, E. (2020). Infected markets: Novel coronavirus, government interventions, and stock return volatility around the globe. Finance Research Letters, 35, A. 101597. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101597
  40. Zhang, H. and Giouvris, E. (2022). Measures of volatility, crises, sentiment and the role of US ‘Fear’Index (VIX) on herding in BRICS (2007–2021). Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(3), p. 134. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15030134
Send comment about this article
Enter Name.
Enter a valid email address.
Enter a vaid affiliation.
Enter comments (At leaset 10 words)
CAPTCHA Image
Enter Security Code Correctly.